Higher or Lower Contest - Round 5

The rollercoaster continues!

We've gone from 10, up to 14 then as high as 17. Plummeted back down to 9 and then shot straight back up to 16 goals in yesterday's games, largely thanks to the 5 -1 victory that Coventry recorded at home to Pompey.

You'd say an average round would probably fall into the 12 - 14 goal range and we don't seem to be experiencing many of them.

5 more fixtures coming up though and some of them, potentially quite high scoring.

Burnley v Man City

The full time whistle in this one could be a defining moment for both teams.

Burnley know that defeat will see them relegated back down to the Championship once again. They have become the a-typical 'yo-yo team' of the 2020s.

Meanwhile City know that a win will take them to the top of the league with just 4 to play despite them having trailed Arsenal for the vast majority of the season.

Burnley have a multitude of problems that can generally be summed up as not having good enough players for this division but they also possess the league's worst defence. 67 goals conceded from an xG against of 71, 10 higher than any other side in the division.

They are up against the league's top scorers and a side that has scored in their last 11 league games. For their part, Burnley have just a solitary clean sheet in their last 15 league games.

Goals then seem inevitable but how many of them?

City battered Burnley 5-1 in the reverse fixture earlier this season although that score probably flattered them. Prior to that the most recent games between these sides have finished 3-1 and 3-0 to the Citizens.

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 3.4
Over 2.5 goals - 1.3

Over 2.5 goals in last 5 games

👈 most recent matches

Barcelona v Celta Vigo

Real's victory yesterday closed the gap on Barca to 6 points but the Catalan giants have the oppurtunity to reestablish that 9 point cushion and pretty much place one hand on the title with a win in this fixture.

Celta are vying for a European spot which is looking more likely to be the Conference League unless they can pull some points out of matches like this.

Barca? Well we know about their goal scoring pedigree, particularly here at the Nou Camp where they average over 3 goals a game.

Celta too have seen plenty of goals in fixture of late and not always in the right net as far as they are concerned!

They conceded 3 in both legs of their Europa League tie against Freiburg, another 3 against bottom club Oviedo in their most recent La Liga game and also lost 3-4 to another relegation candidate in Alaves prior to that. In total they've conceded 15 times in their last 5 games in all competitions.

Recent matches between the 2 clubs also suggest goals. We had 6 in the reverse fixture earlier this season and 7 in the equivalent match last year!

The only one saving grace for Celta, is that their away record this season is strong. Only the big 2 have accumulated more points on the road this season than.

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 3.5
Over 2.5 goals - 1.3

Over 2.5 goals in last 5 games

👈 most recent matches

PSG v Nantes

After PSG's defeat at home to Lyon at the weekend this becomes a must win game for the French giants who are just a point clear of Lens with this, their game in hand.

For Nantes, this is their game in hand to try and cut the 5 point gap between them and safety.

It feels like a tall order but they've actually acquitted themselves suprisingly well against PSG in recent encounters. They lost the reverse fixture in August by a goal to nil and drew both matches 1-1 with the European Champions last season.

PSG have blown very hot and cold all season. When you see them in European fixtures, you generally assume that they'll be whiping the floor with everyone in their domestic competitions.

While that does happen (3-1 and 4-0 wins against Toulouse and Nice in recent games), they have also struggled to put together that really commanding run of results to seal the title with plenty of time to spare.

On paper, you'd think that this should be an easy win for the home side and the bookies are offering short odds on over 2.5 goals. However, I'd say there's a chance that this game could be lower scoring than the odds suggest.

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 3.30
Over 2.5 goals - 1.33

Over 2.5 goals in last 5 games

👈 most recent matches

Telstar v Sparta Rotterdam

This is our first stop by the Dutch top flight. Sorry to have kept you waiting!

The Dutch organise their European qualification system in a slightly different way than many other leagues which means that even a very mid-table side like Sparta have something to play for this late in the season.

8th place would get them into a play-off for the Conference League spot and they are currently 2 points from that mark albeit with a woeful goal difference (-14) to overcome if it does get tight. That goal difference comes as a result of having a fairly ineffective attack coupled with some heavy defeats to the league's better sides.

Telstar are not one of the league's better sides. In fact, they are fighting relegation and know that a win here could move them out of the bottom 3.

That's some achievement based on how their season was going up until the Spring. They've won 3 of their last 5 to double the number of victories for the season, including a shock win over champions PSV.

Despite neither side having a particularly effective attack, the bookies are backing this one to be over 2.5 goals presumably on the weaknesses of their respective defenses.

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 2.37
Over 2.5 goals - 1.53

Over 2.5 goals in last 5 games

👈 most recent matches

Charlton v Ipswich

With Coventry promoted as Champions and Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday already relegated, the battle in the Championship is for 2nd place (automatic promotion to the Premier League) and to avoid the final relegation spot.

Charlton know that a point in their last 2 games, both at home, will be enough to keep them up after Oxford lost to Wrexham yesterday.

However, points haven't been easy to come by of late! Their last win was the 7 March and since then they've passed up opportunities to get valuable wins against the likes of Sheffield Wednesday and Oxford. If they do reach safety, it'll likely be because there are worse sides out there!

Ipswich too have failed to take opportunities of late with just 1 point from their last 2 fixtures. However, with 2 games in hand on Milwall, the side currently in 2nd spot, and with both Southampton and Boro' dropping points yesterday this is their opportunity to stake their claim for a quick return to the top flight.

If you like to look at previous results between clubs as a clue for how this game will pan out then this fixture tends to go from feast to famine especially where Ipswich are concerned.

The Tractor boys have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches against Charlton but when they have hit the back of the net then the scoring has exploded 4-0, 4-4 and most recently a 6-0 win when these 2 sides were both playing in Division 1 a few years ago.

This is the only game in Round 5 where the bookies are backing under 2.5 goals as the most likely outcome which given current form and what is at stake for both sides, is probably a fair reflection.

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 1.70
Over 2.5 goals - 1.95

Over 2.5 goals in last 5 games

👈 most recent matches

Round 5

Everyone got it right yesterday so no change to the active players.

Iʼve got a feeling that today might not be such a universal decision!

@blanchy - Alive (1 BB)
@talesfrmthecrypt - Alive (1 BB)
@sportsgeek - Alive
@fullcoverbetting - Alive
@danideuder - Alive
@mondoshawan - Alive
@zusi78 - Alive (1 BB)
@uwelang - Alive (1 BB)
@niallon11 - Alive (1 BB)