Higher or Lower Contest - Round 4

From feast to famine!

We dropped from 17 goals in Round 2 to just 9 goals in Round 3. The earlier kick-offs had provided 6 goals, suggesting an outside chance of another high scoring round but that wasn't to be as just 3 goals were scored across the games in England, Portugal and Italy.

We're back up to 9 players thanks to 5 buy backs yesterday. All those 9 players correctly guessed there would be fewer than 17 goals in yesterday's matches.

The prize fund is now up to 1600 MEDALS.

The temptation of course will be to go higher again today but I wonder if anyone is brave enough to buck the trend in order to try and take the win?

Brighton v Chelsea

Otherwise know as Brighton v Brighton's old boys.

Chelsea are in shocking form having suffered 4 defeats on the bounce. By contrast, no side has won more points in the same period than Brighton have (10 from their last 4).

Another win for the Seagulls would take them ahead of the Blues and all but end Chelsea's hopes of a Champions League spot next season. Given the financial losses that the West London club have already reported, that could be significant for their immediate on and off the field plans.

No area of the game is working particularly well for Chelsea but most worrying must be the fact that they haven't scored in the league since the 4 March. That's 400+ minutes of Premier League football and counting since they last hit the back of the net.

Brighton meanwhile have been very consistent since being knocked out of the FA Cup back in February, scoring in all but 1 of their 7 games since then (a 1-0 loss to Arsenal).

If there is one stat that might suggest a different outcome, it is that Chelsea continue to be the top scoring away team in the Premier League this season with 30 goals in 16 matches.

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 2.20
Over 2.5 goals - 1.65

Over 2.5 goals in last 5 games

👈 most recent matches

Coventry v Portsmouth

Coventry are heading back to the top flight for first time since 2001. I always liked those Coventry teams of the late 90s who played attacking football with the likes of Darren Huckerby, John Aloisi and even a young Robbie Keane.

They have been by far the best team in the Championship this season but they've kind of limped across the line in recent weeks having drawn their last 3 matches.

They are 10 points clear at the top while Ipswich, their nearest rivals, have a game in hand. The Tractor Boys don't play until tomorrow night so Frank Lampard and his side can seal the title tonight with a win in front of their home fans.

Portsmouth's form has been the polar opposite. They have found 3 wins in a row to pull them away from the relegation zone, including a 1-0 victory over Leicester on Saturday in front of a jubilant Fratton Park.

I watched most of the 2nd half of that game and it was not high quality football. Portsmouth's winner was about as scrappy a goal as you are likely to see but when you're fighting for your lives, it doesn't really matter how they go in.

That victory took Pompey 7 clear of the drop zone, so again, a win for them will seal their survival in the Championship.

The 2 wins prior to that for Portmouth were actually against Coventry's main rivals for the title in Ipswich and Boro'. Will they do the Sky Blues another favour and roll over or are they here to fight a little bit longer?

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 1.95
Over 2.5 goals - 1.80

Over 2.5 goals in last 5 games

👈 most recent matches

Rotherham v Luton

I picked this game last week for 2 reasons. Firstly, I thought at least non-English fans would recognise Luton after their brief spell in the Premier League a couple of years ago and in the hope that it would have something riding on the result for both sides.

Unfortunately for Rotherham that's not the case. Despite victory in their game at the weekend, they have been relegated. The Millers now only have pride to play for.

However, Luton are on the charge. A season that looked like it would fizzle out to a mid-table finish has been reignited by recent form. They are unbeaten in their last 9, scoring 2 goals or more in 8 of those matches.

That run leaves the Hatters just 3 points off a play-off position with 3 matches to play. They have a very good recent record against Rotherham too, unbeaten in their last 5.

The bookies certainly favour the away team to win and to win with relative ease. Can Rotherham's new manager Lee Clark get his side to fight in front of their home fans?

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 2.1
Over 2.5 goals - 1.67

Over 2.5 goals in last 5 games

👈 most recent matches

Real Madrid v Alaves

From New York (that is where Rotherham play their home games - good to know for football quizzes) to the Bernabéu.

Real Madrid are licking their wounds after that classic encounter against Bayern last week and it feels like that tie in general has occupied their thoughts for the last couple of La Liga games.

They dropped points at home to Girona last time out having lost at Mallorca the match before that. It actually means that Real have no win in 4 games in the month of April!

With Barca 9 points clear of them and 7 still to play, this is a must win for Real.

Alaves have plenty at stake themselves sitting just a point and a place above the relegation zone. However, you would assume that they are targeting other fixtures to get the necessary points on the board for survival.

You'd think that a team in their position will just park the bus and hope to avoid it descending into a cricket score but in recent weeks Alaves have been involved in some absolutely cracking games.

A 3-3 at Sociedad last time out, 2-2 against Osasuna and 4-3 win on the road against Celta Vigo prior to that. In total, there have been 24 goals in their last 5 La Liga fixtures!

Are they going to turn up to the Bernabéu and have a go at a shaky Real team? If they do, this could be both fun and high scoring!

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 2.70
Over 2.5 goals - 1.44

Over 2.5 goals in last 5 games

👈 most recent matches

Genk v Charleroi

Lastly we are back to Belgium for Genk v Charleroi.

Like the Danish League from yesterday, the Belgian top flight splits for the later part of the season with the top clubs battling it out for the Champions League and Europa League places and the middle portion hoping to get into a play-off place for the Conference League. These 2 sides, after disappointing regular seasons, are in the later category.

Genk, however, are leading the way in the battle to named 'best of the rest'. They were part of the Europa League this season and made it through to the round of 16, so there is some pedigree there.

Their primary strength is scoring goals. They've managed 50 of them in 33 leagues games this season. Their primary weakness is conceding them. In the regular season, only bottom placed Dender had a worse defensive record than Genk.

Their opponents Charleroi were on course to get into the top 6 and make the Champions League play-off group before a terrible run of form since February which has seen them win just once in 11 league matches.

They've failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches and have had a player sent off in 4 of them!

The previous match between these 2 sides finished 2-2 and on current form you'd expect there will be more goals today!

Under/over odds
Under 2.5 goals - 1.95
Over 2.5 goals - 1.75

Round 4 results

@blanchy - Alive (1 BB)
@talesfrmthecrypt - Alive (1 BB)
@sportsgeek - Alive
@fullcoverbetting - Alive
@danideuder - Alive
@mondoshawan - Alive
@zusi78 - Alive (1 BB)
@uwelang - Alive (1 BB)
@niallon11 - Alive (1 BB)

The 9 players above are still in the competition.

Deadline for picks for today's games is 7:30pm (BST)